By Tom Johnston of meatingplace.com

Predicting live hog prices not seen since the liquidation of 1998, Credit Suisse food stocks analyst Robert Moskow said prices could plummet to $10 per hundredweight given the likely increase in number of hogs coming to slaughter this fall at packing houses already running at capacity.

Moskow said in a note to investors that more hogs will go to slaughter this fall because the herd is too large, citing USDA's June Hogs and Pigs report that showed a 5.8 percent increase in the herd. By comparison, market analysts had expected the report to show about a 4.6 percent increase.

He noted that sow farrowings in the March-May period are up 2 percent over the same period last year, "which means the pig crop will be bigger, not smaller in the fall."

Slaughterhouses already are running at capacity and perhaps beyond it, Moskow said.

"We would not be surprised to see hog prices fall to $0.10/lb. at some point this fall. This is what happened during the liquidation of 1998," he wrote, citing a time when prices crashed to $8 per hundredweight in the fall of that year and forced the industry to contract.

Ron plain, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, agrees, saying $10 per hundredweight prices "are possible."

"I expect hog slaughter capacity to be a bit higher this fall than last. Packers are constantly mechanizing and pushing up thier capacity," he told Meatingplace.com. "However, there is always the risk that something will happen to shut down a plant. This fall, that would not be good."

The silver lining, Moskow noted, is farrowing intentions are expected to be down 2 percent through August and down 4 percent through November.

It's close, but if you are looking for a tested ram, you might start here.

TESTED RAM SALE

Sale Date: Saturday, July 12 - 7:30 pm
Macomb, IL at the WIU Livestock Center

Complete Performance Rams - Suffolks, Polypays, Hampshires, Crossbreds, and more

Individual Feed Efficiency, Gain, Rib Eye, Rib Fat and Ewe Productivity values are combined into a General, Terminal, and Maternal Index

See web for pics and info http://www.wiu.edu/ramtest

Bonus: Producers also consign pens of 3 ewe lambs that will be sold!

Sale Day: Educational Seminar - 5:30, Free Lamb BBQ - 6:15, Sale Time: 7:30

Appealing to both the Purebred & Commercial Produces!

Ram Test Website- Click Here

Shipping an item to Australia.

If you get a response to you ad on one of our site from this email address tom_marley12@yahoo.com disregard it. He is sending out servaral.

When you read his email you will see that he doesn't even know what is in your ad. That should tip you off!

We welcome the Red Angus Association of America as a banner advertiser on BullShop.com and a sponsor of our newsletter, Cattlemen's Update.

A warm "Thank You!" to Greg Comstock, Clint Berry and the rest of the gang in Denton.

They'd like you to visit their website.

Click here to visit

The Dairy industry and Livestock marketing yards continue to give the beef industry a black eye.
Ron Torell
University of Nevada Cooperative Extension Livestock Specialist

The Dairy industry and Livestock marketing yards continue to give the beef industry a black eye. This has to stop. Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) will keep delivering these videos as long as the dairy industry continues to deliver downer cows to auction yards and auction yards continue to ignore their responsibility in not accepting non-ambulatory animals. HSUS said they have not seen any non-ambulatory beef cows or have seen any animal abuse to beef cows.

Timely culling is the key. Send these cows to auction before every ounce of protein is wrung from their body. Our regional BQA educational and certification efforts need to be expanded and concentrate on the Dairy segment. We need to add a section to our regional BQA manual specific to the timely culling of cattle and pound this point into the heads of black and white beef producers.

Go to http://www.bqa.wsu.edu/ to view the current western regional Beef Quality Assurance guidelines. To become BQA certified contact me for details.

Changing Expectations In The U.S. Economy
Derrell S. Peel. OSU Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

The shock waves of dramatically higher energy prices are reverberating through every corner of the U.S. and are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The impacts are obvious in some regards and much more subtle in others, but are widespread and only just beginning to be manifested in many cases. There is a growing cry of hysteria-tinged voices asking how we will survive in a world of high energy prices.

A change such as this ultimately must lead to a change in the expectations of all consumers and producers. This process takes time and involves several stages. The first stage is one of assuming the impact is a short run shock that will soon pass. Consumers make no or very minor temporary adjustments in spending habits and accept the fact the costs are higher and the money does not go as far. Producers accept smaller returns and margins but make no significant changes in the production process.

At some point in time, producers and consumers reach stage two where the change has not passed and it is no longer possible to avoid making more significant changes. Consumers, for example, may still have the gas guzzler but make changes in driving habits and recognize that they may want to buy a different vehicle when the time comes. Consumers begin to significantly alter eating habits by eating out less and changing food purchasing choices. Producers make more significant efforts to find cheaper inputs and manage production costs. However, in stage two, neither consumers nor producers have fundamentally changed their lifestyles nor ways of doing business. It appears to me that many consumers and producers in the U.S. are in or very near stage two at this time.

Stage three occurs when consumers and producers stop asking how they can continue with the status quo (assuming the change is permanent) and begin asking how we fundamentally change what and how we produce and consume. It does not appear that many producers or consumers have reached stage three yet. Consider the reluctance of the airline industry to fundamentally reassess a business model that clearly is not working. For the most part we are still asking how to keep doing what we have done rather than asking how we can use an entirely new approach to do things. The process of long run adjustments to our economy does not begin until we change the long-run expectations of consumers and producers.

These adjustments are not easy or quick. Many will take up to a decade and some much more than that. The suburban-sprawl, car culture that is so dear to us in the U.S. has been developing continuously since the 1950s. For example, we do not have nor can we effectively use things like public transportation to a much greater degree in the short run, even if our expectations have changed enough to make us willing to use it. However, over time, we may recognize the need to invest in more and different public transportation infrastructure and adapt it to work in our suburban landscape. This and a multitude of other changes have yet to be recognized let alone embraced. The process will be painful, frightening and threatening for many people but like all changes will also offer a host of new opportunities previously unimagined by both producers and consumers.

Big Al's Texas Rubs, BBQ Rubs & Seasonings

Al placed this National ad today on www.RuralAds.com in the Country Store category. A National Ad runs in all states. The ad will run for 3 months at a cost of only $35. If you are selling a product for many, you should check out our country store.

I can almost taste the BBQ.

Click here to see the whole ad

U.S. May Free Up More Land for Corn Crops
By DAVID STREITFELD, NY Times

CHICAGO — Signs are growing that the government may allow farmers to plant crops on millions of acres of conservation land, while a chorus of voices is also pleading with Washington to cut requirements for ethanol production.

Click to read the whole article

Got this note from and old friend Roy Leidahl.
Roy writes newsletters for areas of the ag industry.

" I just spent two days listening to experts in grain, dairy, energy, technical trading and policy. The only consensus view was volatility."

Click on this link to visit Roy's website

The Webbers Falls, OK FFA chapter placed a FREE State Calendar Ad on www.RuralCalendar.com for their "Midnight Madness on the River Swine Jackpot."

You can do the same for an event you need to promote.

Click here to see the latest ads on RuralCalendar.com

As flooding continues, meat processors ask EPA to suspend ethanol mandate
By Janie Gabbett on 6/18/2008 for Meatingplace.com

As rising waters continued to breach levees and corn prices topped $8.00 on the Chicago Board of Trade, a group of agribusiness and environmental groups are once again calling on the Environmental Protection Agency to revisit its ethanol fuel mandate.

Meatingplace.com

Ev and Dane, one of our grandsons, went for a walk on the trail in the park behind our house this morning. I got this photo when he was standing still. That doesn't happen very often.

Grand Kids are grrrreat!

The last few days, when I have seen on TV all the corn fields under water, I remembered "checked corn". I don't know if that is the correct name, but that is what my dad called it on our farm. I do remember someone calling it "wire corn".

Here is a description I found on the internet.
They used a system called "checked corn." They planted the hills at the same intervals in each direction, usually 40 inches. If the planter was running from north to south, a wire was strung with knots on it every 40 inches. When the planter hit the knot, the seeds dropped. This way, the hills came out in a checkerboard pattern – one hill every 40 inches in all directions. The reason for "checked corn" was that the farmer could run a cultivator through the field in each direction – once north and south and the next time east and west. In this age before chemical herbicides, it was important to chop out the weeds mechanically.

I guess when I was about 12, I became the one; there were 4 of us boys who did the cultivating. We did it 4 times in a growing season.

We only planted checked corn for the crib corn.

We had my son, his wife and their two kids over yesterday. I grilled a pork loin and Ev did her usual great job on the rest.
Here is a photo of the kids and me.
Grand Kids are Grrrrreat!

Greg Comstock has been named Executive Secretary of the Red Angus Association of America (RAAA). Comstock has been the Commercial Marketing Programs Coordinator since 2003 and is one of the driving factors in the breed's growth to fourth largest in the industry. Comstock's dedication to the commercial customer, experience in advertising, marketing, leadership development and purebred sale management has helped guide the increasing demand from cattlemen for Red Angus genetics. His progressive thinking has made Red Angus Marketing Programs the envy of the industry and his commitment to Red Angus breeders and their customers has been a catalyst for increasing Red Angus market share. As Executive Secretary, Comstock will be responsible for staff development, member services, industry relations and providing visionary focus for the direction of Red Angus.

Click here to go to the Red Angus website